Boom Time winning last year's Caulfield Cup.

Image - Racing Photos

By Brad Bishop

Ethereal has a lot to answer for when it comes to inflated expectations around Queensland Oaks winners in the Caulfield Cup.

VRC Oaks and ATC Oaks winners have long been immediately promoted to near-favouritism for the Melbourne Racing Club's signature event, which will be run this Saturday, but Ethereal in particular stamped the Queensland equivalent as a race that also needed to be monitored.

After her 2001 Oaks success, she went on to win the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double - the last horse to do so.

Her victory came five years after Arctic Scent claimed the Queensland Oaks/Caulfield Cup double and since, Zagalia, Vouvray, Eskimo Queen, Scarlett Lady, Provocative and Egg Tart have all been spoken of as potentially the 'next Ethereal'.

Winx, the 2015 Oaks winner, might have also been in that category before going on to craft a legendary reputation of her own.

Remarkably few of that group have even contested the Caulfield Cup. Zagalia ran sixth and Vouvray fourth, but there hasn't been a Queensland Oaks winner in the Caulfield Cup since Riva San finished second-last in 2008.

So, the Queensland Oaks might not have proven the guide many had it pegged for early this millennium, but the race Youngstar most recently contested - the Turnbull Stakes - is a great guide.

    •    Seven of the past 10 Caulfield Cups have been won by Australian or New Zealand-trained horses, five of which had their final lead-up run in the Turnbull Stakes;
    •    13 of the past 30 Cup winners have come via the Turnbull, nine of which finished top three.
    •    Boom Time won last year's edition a week after finishing third in the Herbert Power Stakes, just the third horse to win the Cup out of the Herbert Power in the past 30 years;
    •    Mongolian Khan also won the Cup on a seven-day back-up, out of the Caulfield Stakes, and is the only horse since Mummify (2003) to do so; and
    •    Night's Watch is striving to join Jameka as the only Naturalism Stakes/Caulfield Cup winner. Sixteen other Naturalism winners have run in the Cup, with 2007 runner-up Douro Valley the only other to place. Tawqeet is the only other Cup winner to have come via the Naturalism. Kings Will Dream (third), Ventura Storm (fourth), Jon Snow (seventh) and Mighty Boss (ninth) are this year's Caulfield Cup contestants who came via the Turnbull.?Youngstar and Kings Will Dream have both spent periods at the top of betting charts since the Turnbull Stakes and punters are hopeful of a more palatable result than last year when Boom Time won at $51, the longest-priced winner since Taufan's Melody at $67 in 1998.?
    •    Favourite backers had a super run between Taufan's Melody and Boom Time, with half of the 16 editions between 1999 and 2016 won by the favourite; and
    •    Between 1978 and 1998 just three favourites were successful and seven winners started $21 or longer including three at $51 or better. There has been a good spread in the winning weights of recent Caulfield Cup winners with several successful towards the head of the field and also some taken out by those down in the weights.?
    •    Between 1988 and 2007 just three horses won with more than 54.5kg, but four of the past 10 have been won by horses carrying at least 55kg; and
    •    52.5kg is the most successful weight in the past decade with three wins, while last year's winner Boom Time had 52kg. Winning barriers have also been shared around in the past decade with five winners starting from the inside half of the field and the other five starting from 10 or wider.?
    •    In the past 30 years, gates three, seven and nine are the most successful Caulfield Cup barriers with four wins apiece; and
    •    No horse has won from barrier one since Velocity in 1941. Four-year-olds are the most successful age group in Caulfield Cup history with Descarado, Southern Speed, Mongolian Khan and Jameka horses of that vintage to have won in the past decade.?
    •    Four-year-olds have a better than 50 per cent record since 1988, having won 16 of the 30 editions;
    •    Six-year-olds have been the equal-most-successful age group in the past decade with four wins; and
    •    Just five five-year-olds have won in the past 30 years and none since Master O'Reilly in 2007.

The Verdict: Hard to split Kings Will Dream and Youngstar, who are both down in the weights, have suitable barriers and placed in the most prolific producer of Caulfield Cup winners, but given the record of four-year-olds the nod goes to Youngstar.

This article first appeared on Racing.com and is reprinted here with their kind permission. To find out more about Racing Victoria's Off the Track program, visit rv.racing.com/the-horse/off-the-track.

 

READ THE LATEST NEWS ARTICLES HERE