HIT THE RESET BUTTON FOR TOKYO 2021

The pandemic pause is largely over and Australian selectors need to look at what has changed from what might have been. Is there a rider or horse under the radar that now has a better chance for Tokyo 2021?

“The selection process is
so tough and not for
the faint-hearted.”

Well, 1 August, 2020, which was to be the first day of the Tokyo Olympics, has come and gone and incredibly the Olympics were postponed. Never before has something like this happened and such is the disaster of COVID 19. The laws of nature are unstoppable; however, so too is the world of we the people, and our dreams and our pursuit of high achievement and our recognition of other athletes from other nations all over the world. The Olympics might be one year late, but here they come and better late than never. The Olympics are now scheduled to start on 23 July, 2021.

So, back to the Australian eventing riders and dressage riders in their amazing journey to, firstly, be selected by the Australian selectors to make the team for Tokyo, and secondly, to have a jolly good look at just how good we Australians are and what our chances are of success.

The selection process is so tough and not for the faint-hearted. There are three riders and their horses only selected for the eventing team and three riders and their horses only selected for the dressage team. So tough and so cruel for so many people who have tried so hard to pursue their dreams of riding for their country.

Back in February, when the Games were just five months away, the Australian eventers were definitely starting to muscle up and the top 10 riders probably did represent where the final three team members were going to be selected from. Eight months on and not a lot has changed on the rider rankings; however, when it comes to the horses, we may well see some younger ones, which were not going to be ready for Olympic participation this year, move up to seriously challenge for team selection in 2021.

Conversely, a few of the older horses who were still at the top of their game this year have just started slipping, and sadly, some of these will drift away from the top lines simply because time and age impacts on athletes. In eventing and in dressage, the athlete is the horse.

So, following is my top 10 Australian combinations. The formula I have used is purely mathematical and represents the Australian combinations who have had the best scores in a recent 4**** 3DE (CCI4*L) or a 5***** 3DE (CCI5*L). Keep in mind that the CCI5*L is the toughest three-day event you can do in the world, however, the Olympics are actually a CCI4*L competition. This is so as to allow some of the less experienced nations to compete at the Olympics with a greater degree of safety.

My ranking of these Australian riders has not taken into consideration how difficult each individual event was when compared with other events, how reliable a combination is, how sound a horse or rider combination seems to be, and how suitable some of the horses may or may not be allowing for the fact that Tokyo will be hot and humid, and that the cross-country course will be a little shortened. All of these intangible considerations do change who will be picked and who will not, and this very difficult part of the selection process is left to the Australian selectors.

“There is a possibility that
an Australian rider not listed…
has time to come flying
in from left field.”

What is also tangible is what occurred last weekend at Pau CCI5*L in France. It was won by a British woman, Laura Collett, riding her horse London 52. Laura won with a score of 21 penalties. That should win an individual gold medal at Tokyo and make a major contribution to the British team winning a team gold medal. The British did win both the team and the individual gold medal at the World Equestrian Games in the USA in 2018. So, the British are probably the ones we Australians have to beat — and 21 penalties after dressage, cross-country and show jumping is the score we need to equal or better. Holy smoke!

MY TOP 10 AUSSIE EVENT RIDERS

1. Chris Burton riding Clever Louis. Chris finished Boekelo CCI4*L on the 10/10/19 with a great score of 26 penalties. Chris also has Lawtown Chloe (28.8 to win Millstreet CCI4*L 22/08/2019) and Quality Purdy (33.8 for second place at Pau CCI5* 23/10/2019) also qualified with great scores.
2. Shane Rose riding Easy Turn scored 30.1 penalties at Robertson CCI4*L on 28/11/19. Easy Turn is a young mare who looks brilliant and who probably would not have been ready had the Olympics been this year. Shane also has his experienced international horse Virgil.
3. Stuart Tinney rode Celebration at Werribee CCI4*L for a score of 30.9 penalties. Stuart also has another young horse qualified in Leporis.
4. Amanda Ross riding Koko Popping Candy for 32.5 penalties at Robertson on 28/11/19. Amanda also has RLE Poynstown Will qualified.
5. Kevin McNab riding Scuderia 1918 A Best Friend scored 35.3 penalties at Blenheim CCI4*L on the 19/09/19. Kevin also has another top horse, Scuderia 1918 Don Quidam.
6. Sam Lyle riding BF Valour scored 37.2 penalties at Robertson on 28/11/19.
7. Andrew Hoy and Vassily de Lassos scored 38 penalties at Strzegon in Poland on 10/10/19.
8. Hazel Shannon riding WillingaPark Clifford scored 38.7 penalties at Adelaide CCI5*L on 14/11/19.
9. Matt Gaske riding Thymes Too scored 50.6 penalties at Robertson 4-star L on 28/11/19.
10. Christine Bates riding Adelaide Hills scored 39.9 at Montelibretti CCI4*L in Italy on 24/10/19. Adelaide Hills is an old stager, and the postponement of the Games probably hasn’t been a suitable outcome for him.

Sammi Birch rode Tullyoran Cruise at Blenheim CCI4*L on 19/09/19 for a score of 30.4 penalties, however this horse is now with the Japan Equestrian Federation and ridden by Yoshiaki Oiwa.

I do think there is a possibility that an Australian rider not listed above still has time to come flying in from left field and at least make a statement… and just possibly make the team for Tokyo. Long odds indeed but possible. The two CCI4*L events in Australia where someone like this could make an unexpected attack on selections are Wallaby Hill 3DE held on 4-6 December this year and Sydney 3DE, which will be held in early May 2021. We will all be watching these two events with great interest.

Now for the dressage team, and this has so changed compared to who was going to be picked and not picked at the beginning of this year had the Olympics not been postponed a year.

MY TOP 10 AUSSIE DRESSAGE RIDERS

The below rankings are based on Grand Prix CDI scores only, and do not take into account whether the combination is fully qualified for the Olympics yet.

1. Simone Pearce riding her horse Destano scored 76.26% at Brno in Czech Republic on the 29/08/20. This is an Australian Grand Prix record and Simone has just popped up out of the blue! Simone had no Grand Prix performance at the start of this year and had the Olympics not been postponed they would have come and gone without Simone Pearce and her horse Destano.
2. Kristy Oatley and Du Soleil scored 73.913% in the CDI-W at Pilisjászfalu, Hungary, on 03/05/2019. This was an Australian CDI Grand Prix record score before Simone overtook it with Destano this year.
   
3. Mary Hanna riding her mare Calanta on a score of 72.76% at Bawley Point (Willinga Park) on the 27/02/20.
4. Mary Hanna again riding her second mare Syriana with a score of 71.24% at Deauville in France on 19/07/19.
5. Lyndal Oatley riding her new horse, Eros, with a score 70.95% at Aarhus Vilhelmsborg on 17/10/20.
6. Lone Jörgensen riding Corinna scored 70.11% at Boneo on 24/01/20.
7. Sue Hearn riding Remmington with a score of 70% at Boneo on 21/09/19.

=8. Maree Tomkinson riding DMJ Donna Elena scoring 69.652% at Werribee on 23/03/19. Unbelievably, Maree scored exactly the same as Fiona Selby riding Tacita at a different competition.
=8. Fiona Selby riding Tacita scored 69.652% at Boneo on 13/12/19.
10. Rozzie Ryan riding Jarrah R scored 68.65% at Willinga Park on 29/02/19.

Riley Alexander riding Larenso scored 68.17% at Boneo on 24/01/20 to sit just outside the top ten.

This enormous move by Simone Pearce to go from nowhere to the top of the leader board is completely inspirational and it will be fascinating to see if our other Australian riders can respond. It will also be interesting to see if there are other Grand Prix dressage riders out there in the wide brown land who realise that anything is possible and be inspired to focus up and have a real Australian crack at this dressage discipline.

Charlotte Dujardin completely inspired England and today the British are a real dressage force to be reckoned with! It’s not actually that long ago that we Australians beat the British at the Sydney 2000 Olympics. The problem is, the British really, really responded and have gone gangbusters. The Australians on the other hand have struggled with all those things a struggling nation struggles with, and we have made struggling progress. Hopefully, things are about to change. Watch this spot. EQ

Cheers,
Heath